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This requires a known upside (gain) or downside (loss) risk assessment. The offer price of a binary options contract is roughly equal to the market's perception of the probability of the event happening. If it's a put option, in-the-money happens when the strike price is above the market price of the stock or other asset.
Out-of-the-money would be the opposite when the strike price is above the market price for calls, and below the market price for a put option.